Hydrogen Fueled Cars

The prototypes for hydrogen fueled cars are already being seen.  But…

This direction for vehicles is not going to be the direction that manufacturers go.  Hydrogen will get a lot of support for the next 15 years before it starts to lose its support and resources.  By 2030, hydrogen fueled cars will be a novelty and not seen often.

Electric cars are the future – especially in the U.S.  This is the technology that will be supported and pursued by the public and by manufacturers.  So, if you’re a hydrogen fuel fan, go ahead and buy one if they ever come out at all, but plan on putting it on display or parking it when the technology although touted, falls way short of what Madison Avenue says.

By 2030, 1/3 to 1/2 the new cars on the roads will be electric and electric hybrids.  Since this is only 17 years away, expect gasoline powered vehicles to still be around (1/2 to 2/3rds.)   Why will they still be around?  Because the economy will be such that most people won’t be able afford to buy new vehicles.

As the decade of the 2030’s closes, the economy will get better.  Before then, though, I see a slow decline for the economy.

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Whether the future has good times or bad, the most important time for doing something helpful is Now.

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Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

“I’ve been coming across more and more disturbing information about the BP disaster, … I would love to hear your insights on this. ” S. Austin

While many are working on the problem even now,  I “see” the current status/state continuing full on, until the end of September.  This means that the rate of flow coming from the ground into the Gulf with a receptacle or not, will stay the same until the end of September / beginning of October.  Then it will be dramatically decreased eventually to around 15-18% of what it is now.  This rate will continue for about 2 years from now, meaning the summer of 2012.  During the summer of 2012, they will succeed in stopping 99.92% of the oil that is flowing into the Gulf from the hole that it is flowing from.  This will be all they ever contain.  From then on, the .08% of the oil that will continue to seep into the Gulf will be considered acceptable.  As the years go by, it will inch up to around 4% by 2017-2018.  They will Never! stop all the oil from leaking into the Gulf from this accident until around 2028-2035.  The technology does not exist to stop it from leaking.   While BP is working to stop it now, after they make the shift to the .08% in the summer of 2012, it will be lost in the news as the years pass.  BP simply will eventually consider it not worth any effort or expense to continue to work to stop it 100%. After 2 more decades, they will then be pushed to come back and end the leak completely.

As I always say, tremendous amounts of prayer can shorten this and help the situation.

I will add, to what I “see” about the timeline…

If we were to magically change all vehicles on the earth to electric in one day.  (Impossible, but hypothetical.)  This would not stop the oil companies from drilling oil.  They would seek out a different market for their product.  That market would be the chemical industry.  Drilling would continue, but the products would be different and the end result (pollution) would be lower.

I’ll repeat what I said here before.  Electric cars are the future.  In the same way that computers used to be $1600-$3000 for a 386 running a 50 MB hard drive, and now you can get laptops that run 1000 times faster and store 10000 times more for a few hundred dollars, so will the prices of electric cars go down as the technology is purchased and enhanced.

The first calculator I ever saw was in 1973 or 1974.  It was a basic Texas Instruments and cost $250.  Now you can get one for $1.  The electric car industry is the future.  Few foresaw the computer industry blossoming in the last 30 years into what it is today.  Few still think that the car industry will be almost all electric, but it will.  It will take decades, but so did the computer industry.

Global Warming and related topics

The Global Warming phenomenon will continue to increase steadily until the process of a changeover to reliance upon this new energy source beginning around 2050. As this new energy source enters into our world and is integrated into our societies, the Global Warming phenomenon will slow it’s increase, and then start diminishing to the point that the temperatures will cool, and there will be what could easily be considered a normalizing of temperatures. Those global “symptoms” of the warming process will slowly reverse and it will take from 50-70 years for the different symptoms to return to what could be considered normal, (2120-2150) (Added 11/2/05)

The drive to obtain alternative energy sources has been only a gradual pursuit in our lifetime. The dependence on oil has been “held onto” by the general populace. Here in the U.S., there will be a growing determination in a subsection of the population to look for and find alternative energy sources. This group’s efforts will become noticed as a growing economic market in the next decade (2010-2020) . This growing group will help stimulate the demand for alternative energy sources and help create a market which manufacturers will respond to. Around 2015 is when we will see a “stepped-up” level of availability of alternatives energy sources as compared to today’s availability. Although not on a mass scale, but rather on an individual fringe scale, we’ll see the beginnings with respect to alternative energy sources for the home (2013-2014), and a few workplaces (2012-2013). Some pursue this now, but we’ll see the demand step-up a level and both demand and supply will follow this stepped-up level on into the next decades. Hybrid cars will take their place in U.S. society and by 2012, will be about 10% of all the new cars sold. By 2015-2018, hybrid cars will be about 15-20% of all the cars on the road. A smaller “real” hybrid truck will emerge (testing the market demand) by 2008-2009. (Added 11/16/05)

Some Professional Sports Arenas will switch over to alternative energy sources, in the mid 2030‘s from the traditional supplied electricity to self-generated or smaller community/area generated sources taking themselves off the grid out of economic necessity. (Added 11/16/2005)